Stella Thio · PropNex
1°17′N 103°51′E

The Second Move Framework

Most people buy a property. Then pay it off for 30 years. Few ever build real wealth from it.

The difference is rarely the market. It comes down to which property you bought first, what you did with the equity once it built up, and whether you ever made a second move. I put the URA and HDB record behind all three and turned it into a framework you can run on your own home.

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+10.9% to +36.3%

Five-year resale psf change for the middle 80% of 287 condo projects. Same market, same years, very different results.

URA caveats, single-unit resale, Sep 2021–Aug 2022 vs Oct 2025–Sep 2026
S$220,611

Interest paid on a S$500,000 HDB loan over 30 years at 2.6%. Paying it off in full is not the same as building wealth.

Loan arithmetic, 360 monthly instalments
+53.9%

Median 4-room resale price, all towns, 2017 to 2026. The first move most owners already made, and the equity most of them have not used.

data.gov.sg HDB resale, 8,604 vs 8,053 transactions

Every figure on this page was pulled from URA caveat data and HDB resale records on 12 Sep 2026, with the transaction count beside it. Nothing is a projection.

Stella Thio, PropNex
Stella ThioPropNex · Project Chief, 14 CCR developments

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Send me The Second Move Framework

A free PDF that shows what your current home actually nets you, who will buy from you next, and how to check a second move with numbers before you commit. Sent to your WhatsApp.

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Is this you?

You are not behind. You are just holding the property instead of using it.

These are the things owners actually say to me in the first ten minutes. If three or more sound familiar, the framework was written for you.

My flat has gone up a lot on paper, but I have no idea what that equity can actually do for me.
If I sell and buy a condo, am I just signing up for a bigger loan for the next 25 years?
Everyone says buy new launch. Is that true across the board, or only for some projects?
ABSD, TDSR, CPF accrued interest. I would rather do nothing than get the sums wrong.
I am in my forties. Is it too late for a second move, or am I about to leave it too late?
Which of my options would a buyer pay more for in five to eight years, and which would they walk past?

The record

What 30 years of paying it off actually looks like

A home loan is designed to be paid back. It is not designed to make you money. Here is the arithmetic on a typical HDB loan, and what the lease does to the flat while you are paying.

Bank interest
S$220,611

On a S$500,000 HDB loan at 2.6% over 30 years. The instalment is S$2,002 a month; S$220,611 of what you pay is interest.

CPF accrued interest
S$219,514

Use S$200,000 of CPF OA and you refund it plus 2.5% compounded when you sell. After 30 years that is S$219,514 on top of the S$200,000.

Lease
30 years gone

A 99-year lease bought at 90 years remaining has 60 left when the loan ends. The table below shows what buyers pay for that difference today.

HDB concessionary loan rate 2.6% and CPF Ordinary Account 2.5% as published by HDB and CPF Board, Sep 2026. Straight loan arithmetic, no fees, no rate changes. Bank rates are lower today, which changes the interest figure but not the point.

What the remaining lease is worth, in today's 4-room resales

Same flat type, all towns, January to September 2026. The gap between a flat with 80 years left and one with 50 to 59 years left is S$158,000 at the median.

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Remaining leaseMedian pricevs 80+ yearsResales, 2026 YTD
80 years or moreS$708,000—3,473
70 to 79 yearsS$579,000−S$129,0001,621
60 to 69 yearsS$589,388−S$118,6121,362
50 to 59 yearsS$550,000−S$158,0001,429
Under 50 yearsS$530,444−S$177,556168

data.gov.sg HDB resale flat prices, 4-room, Jan–Sep 2026, retrieved 12 Sep 2026. Town and flat-size mix differ across bands (the 60–69 band includes more central estates), so read this as the market's rough price for lease, not a like-for-like valuation.

Same five years. Very different outcomes.

I took every non-landed project with at least ten single-unit resale caveats in both windows, 287 projects in all, and compared the median psf then and now. The middle of the pack gained 23.7%. The spread is the part nobody shows you.

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ProjectChangeSegment · DistrictCaveats then · nowMedian psf thenMedian psf now
The Eden at Tampines+46.9%OCR · D1824 · 11S$846S$1,243
The Floravale+45.6%OCR · D2231 · 20S$767S$1,118
Riverparc Residence+42.3%OCR · D1928 · 22S$1,016S$1,446
CityLife@Tampines+41.2%OCR · D1850 · 30S$1,183S$1,670
Parc Vera+40.7%OCR · D1915 · 13S$1,122S$1,578
All 287 projects, median+23.7%10th–90th pct: +10.9% to +36.3%≥10 each——
Concourse Skyline−0.3%CCR · D0720 · 17S$1,949S$1,944
One-North Residences−1.9%RCR · D0521 · 14S$1,545S$1,516
The Coast at Sentosa Cove−7.9%CCR · D0411 · 14S$1,651S$1,521
V on Shenton−10.3%CCR · D0122 · 21S$2,102S$1,885
Marina One Residences−20.6%CCR · D0190 · 49S$2,405S$1,908

URA caveat data via URA Data Service, private non-landed, single-unit resale caveats only, retrieved 12 Sep 2026. "Then" is Sep 2021–Aug 2022; "now" is Oct 2025–Sep 2026. Five of the 287 projects fell; 26 gained under 10%. Top five and bottom five shown; the full table is in the framework. Past transactions do not predict future returns.

Where the resale buyer paid up

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SegmentChange2022 median psf2026 YTD median psf
OCR+27.8%S$1,203S$1,537
RCR+23.7%S$1,587S$1,962
CCR+8.8%S$2,013S$2,190

URA caveats, non-landed single-unit resale: 8,465 / 3,537 / 2,172 caveats in 2022 and 5,065 / 2,486 / 1,490 in Jan–Sep 2026. Retrieved 12 Sep 2026.

Read the two tables together. A 4-room bought in 2017 is worth a good deal more today, and the resale condo buyer has been paying up fastest outside the centre. That is the second move: the equity already exists, and the exit buyer is already there. The question is which property, at what entry price.

The first move most owners already made

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4-room, townChange2017 median2026 YTD median
Sembawang+72.4%S$348,000S$600,000
Toa Payoh+67.7%S$598,000S$1,002,944
Hougang+59.3%S$388,000S$618,000
Tampines+55.3%S$430,000S$668,000
Punggol+53.2%S$443,944S$680,000
Bishan+39.3%S$565,500S$788,000
Ang Mo Kio+33.0%S$468,000S$622,500
Marine Parade+21.6%S$520,000S$632,500
All towns+53.9%S$408,000S$628,000

data.gov.sg HDB resale flat prices, 4-room, 2017 full year vs Jan–Sep 2026, towns with at least 20 resales in both periods. Retrieved 12 Sep 2026. Eight of 25 towns shown; all 25 are in the framework.

Two properties, one five-year window

Both owners "bought a condo". Only one built wealth from it.

Two 99-year projects, two-bedroom and three-bedroom sized units (85 to 125 sqm), the same two windows as above. Neither owner did anything wrong. The entry price relative to the exit buyer did the work.

Property A

The Tampines Trilliant

OCR · D18 · 99 years from 2011 · EC, now on the open resale market

Median psf, Sep 21–Aug 22
S$1,272
37 caveats
Median psf, Oct 25–Sep 26
S$1,742
36 caveats
Change+36.9%On a 1,000 sq ft unit that is about S$470,000 more at the median psf.
MonthpsfPriceFloorSqm
Aug 2026S$1,848S$1,850,00011–1593
Aug 2026S$1,788S$1,790,00001–0593
Jul 2026S$1,785S$2,325,00011–15121
Jun 2026S$1,741S$1,968,00011–15105
Jun 2026S$1,716S$1,938,88806–10105
Jun 2026S$1,478S$1,830,00001–05115
Property B

Reflections at Keppel Bay

CCR · D04 · 99 years from 2006 · waterfront, high-profile launch

Median psf, Sep 21–Aug 22
S$1,652
44 caveats
Median psf, Oct 25–Sep 26
S$1,646
18 caveats
Change−0.4%Flat at the median for five years, while the loan, CPF interest and lease kept running.
MonthpsfPriceFloorSqm
Aug 2026S$1,630S$2,000,00006–10114
Jul 2026S$2,004S$2,200,00031–35102
Jun 2026S$1,692S$1,840,00001–05101
Jun 2026S$1,585S$1,688,88806–1099
May 2026S$1,751S$1,960,00001–05104

URA caveat data, single-unit resale, 85–125 sqm, retrieved 12 Sep 2026. Tables show the most recent resale caveats in each project (May–Aug 2026). Two projects chosen to show the spread, not to rank them; results vary by unit, floor and timing, and past transactions do not predict future returns.

What actually decided it

Two decisions separate the two columns

01

The entry price, measured against the exit buyer

Property B was bought at a price its next buyer never caught up with. The launch-to-resale table below shows the same thing across 28 recent projects: buying from the developer worked out from +34.2% to −9.0%, depending on what the entry price left on the table for the resale buyer.

02

The unit the resale market rewards

Not the unit you like most. The one a family or an upgrader in five to eight years will pay the most for: the size band, the floor, the layout, the lease profile. Every unit choice in the framework is checked against who buys it from you, not against the showflat.

Buying from the developer: what the resale buyer paid afterwards

Projects with at least 20 developer sales between Sep 2021 and Dec 2022 and at least 8 resale caveats in the last 12 months. Sorted by outcome. Twenty-eight qualify; eleven shown.

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ProjectChangeSegment · DistrictDeveloper sales · resalesDeveloper median psfResale median psf
JadeScape+34.2%RCR · D2026 · 63S$1,755S$2,355
Parc Clematis+28.5%OCR · D05342 · 128S$1,757S$2,258
Clavon+26.7%OCR · D0566 · 36S$1,701S$2,156
Treasure at Tampines+24.6%OCR · D18104 · 118S$1,444S$1,799
Affinity at Serangoon+19.7%OCR · D1974 · 68S$1,542S$1,846
Amber Park+17.8%RCR · D15120 · 24S$2,473S$2,913
Normanton Park+8.4%RCR · D05676 · 60S$1,855S$2,012
Kopar at Newton+1.0%CCR · D09146 · 23S$2,487S$2,511
Leedon Green−3.7%CCR · D10284 · 10S$2,783S$2,681
Avenue South Residence−6.0%RCR · D03251 · 45S$2,320S$2,180
The M−9.0%CCR · D0741 · 13S$2,759S$2,510

URA caveat data, non-landed single units. Developer median = New Sale caveats Sep 2021–Dec 2022 (later-phase developer sales, not launch-day prices). Resale median = resale caveats Oct 2025–Sep 2026. Leedon Green (10 resales) is a thin sample. Retrieved 12 Sep 2026. Past transactions do not predict future returns.

How I decide

The Second Move Framework, in four steps

This is the order I run through with every owner who sits down with me. It is the same order the PDF follows, so you can do the first two steps yourself before we ever talk.

Step 1

Measure the equity you actually have

Today's sale price, less the outstanding loan, less CPF used plus accrued interest, less costs. Most owners overstate this by the accrued interest and are surprised by the cash portion.

Step 2

Work back from the exit buyer

Who buys this from you in five to eight years, what their budget looks like, and what they will pay more for. That sets the size band, the floor, the layout and the lease profile before any showflat visit.

Step 3

Overlay the supply

Completions and launches coming into the same area and price band, plus the MOP wave of HDB flats nearby. The projects in the bottom rows above were not bad projects; they had too many competitors at the exit.

Step 4

Filter with the numbers, then decide

ABSD, loan-to-value, TDSR or MSR, the monthly figure, and the buffer. If the sums do not clear with room to spare, we stop. Doing nothing is a valid outcome of the framework.

What's inside

The Second Move Framework, as a PDF you can work through tonight

Six short chapters, every table with its source and transaction count. Updated for September 2026.

  1. 01
    The equity worksheetWhat your current home nets after the loan, the CPF refund with accrued interest, and costs. Fill it in with your own figures.
  2. 02
    The 287-project tableFive-year resale psf change for every non-landed project with enough caveats, sorted, with segment and district.
  3. 03
    Who buys from youThe exit-buyer checklist by segment and unit type, and how to use it before you pick a unit.
  4. 04
    Lease timing, every town4-room resale medians by remaining-lease band for all 25 towns, so you can see what waiting is costing.
  5. 05
    The maths of a second moveABSD, LTV, TDSR and MSR explained with one worked example, and the monthly figure that comes out the other end.
  6. 06
    Three worked casesAn HDB upgrader, a condo owner deciding whether to hold, and an owner choosing between two second moves.
Free. No obligation, no follow-up unless you ask for it.
Sent to your WhatsApp as a PDF, so it is there when you want to reread it.
Every figure from URA caveats or HDB resale records, dated, with the count beside it.
Written for owners in Singapore, not for investors chasing a hot launch.
Send me the framework
Stella Thio

Who wrote this

Stella Thio

PropNex Realty. I read earnings data for years before I read land bids, and I still treat a property the same way: as a set of numbers with a buyer at the other end.

  • Project Chief for 14 developments in the Core Central Region
  • PropNex Millionaire, five years running (2020 to 2024)
  • Six-time Champion Luxury Tagger
  • Former Senior Dealing Director; NUS Economics and Statistics
"The owners who build wealth from property are not the ones who picked the best project. They are the ones who knew what their first property was worth, and moved before the lease and the loan quietly took it back."

What owners say

From people who made their second move

[Google rating and review count]

★★★★★

Sample review — replace before go-live

Sample nameHDB upgrader · [month year]
★★★★★

Sample review — replace before go-live

Sample nameCondo owner · [month year]
★★★★★

Sample review — replace before go-live

Sample nameFirst-time buyer · [month year]

Last step

Find out what your first property can do for you

The Second Move Framework, free, to your WhatsApp. Run the equity worksheet on your own home, then message me if you want the numbers checked.

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Send me the framework